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Hawaii Housing Market Forecast 2026: Prices, Trends & What Sellers Need to Know

Hawaii Housing Market Forecast 2026: Prices, Trends & What Sellers Need to Know

The Hawai’i housing market in 2026 is splitting in two: O’ahu single-family prices have set new record highs while Maui, Kaua’i, and Big Island markets are seeing flat-to-falling median prices, condo softness, and longer time on market. According to the Honolulu Board of Realtors, the O’ahu single-family median sale price hit a record $1,205,000 in February 2026, while the REALTORS Association of Maui reported the Maui single-family median fell 7.3% year over year to $1,200,000 in March 2026. Based on current data from UHERO, DBEDT, and island-level MLS reports, we expect this divergence to continue through 2026 — with O’ahu posting modest gains of 2–4%, Maui stabilizing as Lahaina rebuild activity accelerates, and the neighbor islands navigating a soft buyer’s market with rising inventory.

This guide breaks down what each island’s market is doing right now, what the major forecasting organizations expect for the rest of 2026, and how to decide whether to sell now or wait.

Key Takeaways

Table of Contents

  1. 2026 Hawai’i Housing Market at a Glance
  2. O’ahu Housing Market Forecast 2026
  3. Maui Housing Market Forecast 2026
  4. Big Island (Hawai’i County) Housing Market Forecast 2026
  5. Kaua’i Housing Market Forecast 2026
  6. Mortgage Rate Impact on Hawai’i Buyers in 2026
  7. Inventory Trends Across Hawai’i
  8. Major Forces Shaping the 2026 Hawai’i Market
  9. Should You Sell Your Hawai’i Home Now or Wait?
  10. What This Means If You’re Selling in 2026
  11. Frequently Asked Questions
  12. Ready to Sell Your Hawai’i Property?

2026 Hawai’i Housing Market at a Glance

The statewide story for 2026 is a story of stabilization layered over a deep affordability crisis. According to the University of Hawai’i Economic Research Organization (UHERO) Housing Factbook 2026, the statewide single-family median price has held near $1 million for seven consecutive months, but resales remain slow and condominium values continue to slip across most islands.

UHERO’s economists also reported that a household now needs to earn roughly $180,000 a year — nearly double Hawai’i’s median household income — to afford the state’s median single-family home, and estimate that only about one in five Hawai’i households can realistically afford to buy one.

Here is how the four major island markets compare based on the most recent monthly reports from local boards and Redfin/Zillow data:

Island Single-Family Median (Early 2026) YoY Change Source
O’ahu $1,205,000 (Feb 2026) +1.7% to +3% Honolulu Board of Realtors
Maui $1,200,000 (Mar 2026) -7.3% REALTORS Association of Maui
Hawai’i Island (Big Island) ~$590,000 (Apr 2026) -1% Redfin / Hawaii Information Service
Kaua’i ~$1,000,000 (recent month) -14.4% (sales mix-driven) Redfin / Kaua’i Board of Realtors data

What sellers should take away from this snapshot: pricing power is concentrated on O’ahu right now, while the neighbor islands favor buyers. That has direct implications for how you price, how long you’ll likely sit on the market, and whether a cash sale on your timeline makes more sense than a traditional listing.

O’ahu Housing Market Forecast 2026

O’ahu is the strongest island market in Hawai’i heading into the back half of 2026. According to the Honolulu Board of Realtors and reporting from the Honolulu Star-Advertiser, the O’ahu single-family median sale price reached a record $1,205,000 in February 2026, with a follow-up March 2026 figure also reported at the $1.2 million level — up roughly 3% from the prior year.

For 2025 as a whole, the Honolulu Board of Realtors reported a median single-family sale price of $1,139,000, up 3.5% from 2024’s $1,100,000. That steady upward trajectory has continued into 2026.

What’s driving O’ahu’s resilience:

What to expect for the rest of 2026: Based on the trajectory in the Honolulu Board of Realtors monthly data and the moderate growth outlook published by Locations Hawai’i, we expect O’ahu single-family median prices to finish 2026 in the $1.20M–$1.25M range — modest appreciation of 2–4% for the year. Condo prices are likely to remain roughly flat as buyers digest higher HOA fees and insurance premiums.

If you own on O’ahu and have been weighing a sale, you are selling into the strongest market in the state. Our team at Hawaii Property Buyers regularly works with O’ahu sellers in every neighborhood, and you can see our full speed-ranked options in our guide to selling your house fast in Hawai’i or our deeper walkthrough of how to sell your house fast in Honolulu.

Maui Housing Market Forecast 2026

Maui is the most complicated island market in 2026 because of two simultaneous forces: the ongoing Lahaina rebuild and a broader market reset that began in 2025.

According to the REALTORS Association of Maui, March 2026 single-family home sales rose 57.1% year over year (77 units sold), while the median sale price fell 7.3% to $1,200,000. Condominium sales rose 21.3% (74 units), but the median condo price dropped 17.7% year over year to $675,000. More buyers are transacting, but prices are softer — a classic mid-cycle reset.

The Lahaina rebuild factor. According to Hawai’i Life and Maui Now reporting, Puamana became one of the first West Maui properties to receive rebuild permits, with construction slated to begin in May 2026. Rebuild progress has been slower than many residents hoped, and the cumulative effect has been growing inventory across West Maui as some owners decide to sell rather than rebuild. If you own a fire-damaged Maui property, the decision matrix is uniquely difficult, and we put together a dedicated guide on selling a fire-damaged house in Hawai’i to help.

Vacation rental policy uncertainty. UHERO has flagged that a full phase-out of Maui transient vacation rentals could reduce condo prices by an additional 20–40%, with deed-transfer data already showing declines. This is a real risk that any Maui condo owner should weigh in their sell-now vs wait decision.

Forecast for the rest of 2026: We expect Maui single-family medians to stabilize in the $1.15M–$1.25M band as sales activity picks up. Condo prices are likely to face continued downward pressure, particularly in West Maui and any building affected by vacation-rental policy debates. The Lahaina rebuild will not meaningfully shift macro-level pricing in 2026 — it’s a multi-year story.

Big Island (Hawai’i County) Housing Market Forecast 2026

The Big Island enters mid-2026 as a soft buyer’s market. According to Redfin and Hawai’i Information Service data, the Big Island median home price was about $590,000 in April 2026, down roughly 1% year over year. Hawaii Association of Realtors data has the broader median closer to $650,000 depending on which neighborhoods and property types are included.

The island splits sharply between two markets:

Lava zone considerations. Big Island sellers in Lava Zones 1 and 2 (the southeast quadrant of the island, including parts of Puna) continue to face insurance and financing challenges that depress sale prices and lengthen days on market. This is a unique Big Island factor that O’ahu, Maui, and Kaua’i sellers don’t have to navigate.

Forecast for 2026: Expect Big Island medians to drift sideways through year-end — roughly $570,000–$610,000 statewide — with Kona luxury continuing to soften and Hilo holding steady on affordability-driven demand.

Kaua’i Housing Market Forecast 2026

Kaua’i has the smallest population and the smallest MLS dataset of the four major islands, so its monthly numbers swing widely based on sales mix.

Recent reporting from Hawai’i Life and the Kaua’i Board of Realtors paints a picture of dramatically lower sales volume but mixed price action. In Q1 2026, only 79 island-wide homes sold, compared to 136 in the same period a year earlier — a 41.9% drop in transaction volume. February 2026 saw a single-family median sale price of $1,388,000 (up 50% year over year on a small sample), while condo medians fell roughly 35% to $636,700, according to Hawai’i Life. Zillow’s broader Kaua’i County average sits at about $1,005,000 with only 0.1% year-over-year appreciation.

Vacation home dynamics. Kaua’i’s market is heavily influenced by mainland and international vacation-home buyers, which means it’s sensitive to mortgage rates, stock market sentiment, and travel demand to Hawai’i. Tourism softness in late 2025 and early 2026, combined with higher rates, has thinned the buyer pool.

Forecast for 2026: Expect Kaua’i to remain a thin, illiquid market through year-end. Sellers should plan for longer days on market and be prepared to negotiate, especially on condos and second-home properties.

Mortgage Rate Impact on Hawai’i Buyers in 2026

Mortgage rates are the single biggest demand-side variable in any housing market, and 2026 has finally brought modest relief.

According to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.36% as of mid-May 2026, down from 6.81% one year earlier. The 15-year fixed averaged 5.71%.

What that means in practical terms for a Hawai’i buyer. On a $1,000,000 O’ahu home with 20% down ($800,000 financed):

That’s roughly $240 per month, or $2,880 per year — meaningful, but not enough by itself to dramatically expand the buyer pool in a state where the affordability gap is measured in tens of thousands of dollars of annual income.

Forecast scenarios:

These are scenarios, not promises. Rate forecasts have been wrong consistently for the past several years.

Hawai’i has a structural housing shortage that no other U.S. state matches. The reasons are well documented in UHERO and DBEDT research:

That structural shortage is what keeps O’ahu prices firm even when demand softens. But 2026 has also delivered a meaningful inventory increase on a relative basis. According to recent Redfin data, statewide active listings grew 29.8% year over year in early 2026 to about 6,742 homes. The median time on market climbed to roughly 93–104 days, depending on the source, with FRED data showing year-over-year increases in days on market on most islands.

Months of supply. A balanced market is typically considered 4–6 months of supply. Hawai’i was at roughly 6 months in March 2026 according to Redfin — at the upper end of balanced and tilting toward a buyer’s market on the neighbor islands.

For sellers, this means two things in 2026: you should expect a longer time on market than during the 2021–2022 boom, and you should expect more negotiation and contingencies from buyers.

Major Forces Shaping the 2026 Hawai’i Market

Beyond mortgage rates and inventory, several Hawai’i-specific forces are reshaping the market this year.

1. The insurance crisis. Hawai’i homeowners insurance premiums jumped more than 13% in 2024 alone, the largest annual increase in at least a decade. Condominium master policies have seen even sharper increases — UHERO and local reporting have documented condo association policies with rate increases exceeding 1,000% in some buildings. This directly affects monthly carrying costs and what buyers can qualify for.

2. HOA fees climbing. Hawai’i now has the second-highest HOA fees in the nation, behind only New York. UHERO reports the statewide median HOA fee is around $470/month, with many O’ahu listings advertising fees closer to $900/month. About 42% of Hawai’i homeowners pay HOA or AOAO fees, compared to 25% nationally.

3. Updated FEMA flood maps. New flood maps taking effect in June 2026 are expected to place roughly 3,700 additional O’ahu parcels into Special Flood Hazard Areas, requiring flood insurance for federally backed mortgages. Owners in newly mapped flood zones may see lower appraised values and slower sale times.

4. Lahaina and Maui rebuild. Permit issuance is finally accelerating, but the rebuild is a multi-year process. Maui inventory and pricing will continue to be influenced by rebuild pace, displacement decisions, and vacation rental policy.

5. Tourism and the broader economy. UHERO’s Hawai’i forecast points to a mild recession and weak recovery in 2026. Visitor arrivals have been softer than projected, which affects vacation rental income, second-home demand, and the broader service economy that supports housing demand.

6. Military demand. Roughly 40,000 active-duty military are stationed in Hawai’i, with steady PCS-driven turnover supporting the O’ahu market in particular. For sellers facing a PCS move, see our guide on selling your house when relocating from Hawai’i.

7. HARPTA and non-resident sellers. Hawai’i’s 7.25% withholding on non-resident sellers under HRS 235-68 continues to affect timing decisions for mainland and out-of-state owners. Our HARPTA tax guide walks through how to plan around it.

Should You Sell Your Hawai’i Home Now or Wait?

This is the question we get from sellers more than any other in 2026. The honest answer is that it depends on your island, your property type, and your personal situation. Here is a decision matrix grounded in what we are actually seeing on the ground.

Your Situation Sell Now Wait 12 Months
O’ahu single-family, no rush Reasonable — market near record highs Acceptable — modest upside if rates fall, low downside
O’ahu condo with rising HOA/insurance Lean toward selling — carrying costs are climbing Carrying-cost risk increases each month
Maui single-family Selling now means accepting current softer pricing Possible recovery as Lahaina rebuild progresses, but uncertain
Maui condo (especially West Maui) Strong case to sell — vacation rental policy risk hangs over the market High downside risk if vacation rental phase-out advances
Big Island Kona luxury Lean toward selling — luxury inventory is rising Continued softening likely
Big Island Hilo affordable Less urgency — demand has been steady Modest appreciation possible
Kaua’i Sell only if you have a real buyer; otherwise market is thin Wait only if you can carry an illiquid asset
Facing foreclosure or behind on payments Sell now — time is the enemy in distress situations Waiting almost always destroys equity
Inherited property out-of-state Sell now — carrying costs and HARPTA planning favor speed Each month of vacancy costs money
Need cash for relocation, retirement, divorce Sell now — cash certainty matters more than maximum price Only wait if timeline genuinely allows

A few principles to keep in mind:

If you want to model the math for your specific property, call us at (808) 940-3430. We will run the numbers transparently and tell you honestly whether a cash sale or a traditional listing is the better fit for your situation.

What This Means If You’re Selling in 2026

A few practical takeaways for any Hawai’i seller this year:

  1. Price to the current market, not last year’s market. On Maui, the Big Island, and Kaua’i, prices that worked in 2024 are not closing in 2026. Realistic pricing is the difference between selling in 60 days and sitting for six months.
  2. Account for longer time on market in your planning. Statewide median days on market is around 93–104 days. Plan your move-out, mortgage payoff, and relocation logistics accordingly.
  3. Disclose insurance and HOA realities upfront. Buyers are scrutinizing these line items more than ever. Surprises kill deals.
  4. Consider a cash buyer if speed or certainty matters. Hawaii Property Buyers can typically close in 7–14 days with no financing contingencies, no repairs required, and no realtor commissions.
  5. Plan for HARPTA early if you are a non-resident seller. The 7.25% withholding can be reduced or refunded with the right forms — but only if you start the process before closing.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the median home price in Hawai’i in 2026?
According to UHERO and the Honolulu Board of Realtors, the statewide single-family median has held near $1 million for several months in 2026. O’ahu is the highest at roughly $1.2 million (Feb 2026), with Maui at approximately $1.2 million (March 2026), Big Island near $590,000 (April 2026), and Kaua’i ranging from roughly $1.0M to $1.4M depending on the month and sales mix.

Will Hawai’i home prices go up or down in 2026?
Based on current data from UHERO, the Honolulu Board of Realtors, and DBEDT, we expect a mixed picture. O’ahu is likely to see modest gains of 2–4% for the year. Maui and the Big Island will probably remain flat to slightly down. Kaua’i is too thin a market to forecast with confidence. These are estimates based on current trends, not promises.

What is the average mortgage rate in Hawai’i right now?
According to Freddie Mac’s mid-May 2026 Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average 30-year fixed rate nationally was 6.36%. Hawai’i mortgage rates closely track the national average, though jumbo loans (which apply to most O’ahu and Maui single-family homes) often carry a small premium.

Is now a good time to sell a house in Hawai’i?
It depends on your island and your situation. O’ahu sellers are selling into the strongest market in the state. Maui and Big Island sellers face softer pricing but reasonable buyer demand. The fundamental question is whether you can afford to wait — carrying costs in Hawai’i (taxes, insurance, HOA) can easily exceed projected appreciation.

How long does it take to sell a house in Hawai’i in 2026?
According to Redfin data, the statewide median days on market in early 2026 was roughly 93–104 days, up from prior years. Selling to a cash buyer like Hawaii Property Buyers can compress that to 7–14 days.

How is the Lahaina rebuild affecting Maui home prices?
The rebuild is in early stages. According to the REALTORS Association of Maui and Hawai’i Life reporting, March 2026 Maui single-family medians were down 7.3% year over year and condo medians down 17.7%. As rebuild activity accelerates through 2026 and beyond, the long-term picture should improve, but near-term Maui pricing remains soft.

Are condo prices in Hawai’i going down in 2026?
On Maui and parts of the neighbor islands, yes — driven by rising insurance and HOA fees, vacation rental policy uncertainty, and overall buyer caution. O’ahu condo prices have held roughly flat. According to Locations Hawai’i and the Honolulu Board of Realtors, O’ahu condo medians were essentially flat to slightly positive in early 2026.

Is Hawai’i in a housing bubble in 2026?
UHERO and most mainstream analysts do not characterize the current market as a bubble. Hawai’i prices are high because of structural supply shortages, not speculative excess. That said, certain Maui condo segments — particularly vacation-rental-dependent buildings — carry elevated risk if regulation tightens.

What is HARPTA and does it affect my 2026 sale?
HARPTA is a 7.25% Hawai’i state withholding on real property sales by non-residents, codified under HRS 235-68. If you live on the mainland and sell Hawai’i property, your closing agent will withhold 7.25% of the gross sales price and remit it to the state. You can apply for a withholding certificate or refund. See our full guide at /harpta-tax-hawaii/ for details.

How does the insurance crisis affect Hawai’i home values?
Higher insurance premiums and condo master policy increases raise monthly carrying costs, which reduces what buyers can afford to pay. This puts downward pressure on prices, especially for older condo buildings and properties in flood or fire zones. According to UHERO, Hawai’i property insurance premiums jumped more than 13% in 2024 alone.

Should I sell my Hawai’i rental property in 2026?
That depends on cash flow, your timeline, and whether you are subject to HARPTA. With insurance premiums and HOA fees rising, many landlords are finding that rents are not keeping up with carrying costs. Selling to a cash buyer who will take the property with tenants in place can simplify the exit.

Where can I get a cash offer on my Hawai’i property?
Hawaii Property Buyers LLC purchases residential property across all four major Hawaiian islands — O’ahu, Maui, the Big Island, and Kaua’i. We make fair cash offers within 24 hours and close in as little as 7–14 days. Call us at (808) 940-3430 or visit www.hawaiipropertybuyer.com.

Ready to Sell Your Hawai’i Property?

Whether the 2026 market is going up, down, or sideways on your island, you have options. Hawaii Property Buyers LLC is a locally owned and operated cash home buying company serving every Hawaiian island. We make fair cash offers based on the actual condition and location of your property — no lowball games, no surprises.

We offer:

Call us today: (808) 940-3430

Or visit www.hawaiipropertybuyer.com to request your no-obligation cash offer online. There is no pressure, no obligation, and no cost to get an offer.

About the Author

Written by Robert Koncal, owner and operator of Hawaii Property Buyers LLC. Robert has been purchasing residential properties across all Hawaiian islands since 2021, helping homeowners navigate every type of market — including the 2021–2022 boom, the 2023–2024 cooling, and the divergent island markets of 2026. Based in Honolulu, O’ahu, Robert and his team bring firsthand knowledge of Hawai’i’s real estate cycles, local economic forces, and the unique challenges of island property ownership.

Hawaii Property Buyers LLC — Locally owned. Aloha spirit. Fair cash offers.
2032 S Beretania St, Honolulu, HI 96826 | (808) 940-3430 | hawaiipropertybuyer@gmail.com

Sources Cited

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    we buy houses cash

    Our company is locally based in Honolulu, HI. We buy Oahu houses for cash. We also buy properties on Maui, Kauai and Big Island. Our specialty is  assisting homeowners to quickly sell their homes and help them solve their problems. As investors we are here to provide solutions. We have the capacity to make you a fair cash offer and acquire your house within days or within your desired timeline. We are here to help. Get in touch with us today.

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